Thorough information analysis of the market and forecasting of its development is necessary for choosing the system of the top drive before acquisition or development of new effective model. There is an important role of engineering, scientific and technical forecasting - prediction and "prophecy". This is not a search of known options, it is an assessment of the current state of machinery, anticipation of changes in new technological needs, forecasting trends in technology. Therefore, the full range of top-of-the-range market leaders in 2004 and 2021 is considered – five major European and North American manufacturers. By using the principles of development of technical systems and methods of technical level assessment, the procedures of reasonable choice of effective technical support for well workovers with portable top-drive systems are proposed: market analysis; determining a set of indicators of modern technical level; identification of trends and directions of development of top drive systems; forecast of development of technological indicators and structure of technical system in the future. Ways to improve technological efficiency through technical solutions to increase reliability, maintainability, safety, installation suitability, improvement and expansion of technological capabilities, process automation are shown. Functional dependences for definition of indicators of a modern technical level of models are established. It is predicted that the intensive development of upper drive systems within the parametric cycle will slow down. At the same time, the time has come to develop a new model of technology by changing the structural structure, i.e. the transition to the next structural cycle of development. This will be done by integrating the functions of the hoisting equipment and drawworks into the upper drive system by using linear electric motors for vertical movements of the system. Such a system will be more efficient not only technologically, but also on the principle of "least action". The work is intended for oil and gas engineering specialists who operate top drive systems, for oil and gas engineering engineers and creators of new technical systems. The results provide engineers with the necessary data to select an efficient model for its further operation or to form a competitive technical task for the development of machines
Received 30.03.2022
Revised 31.08.2022
Accepted 28.11.2022
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